Cargo Theft in 2026: Fewer Incidents, Much Bigger Losses
CargoNet data shows cargo theft incidents falling while losses more than doubled in Q2 2026. What changed, which loads are targeted, and what brokers can do.
Hopelight Labs · · 3 min read
Cargo theft in 2026 looks different from a few years ago. The number of reported incidents is down, but the value stolen is sharply up. In the second quarter of 2026, CargoNet recorded 677 supply chain theft incidents in the US and Canada, 26% fewer than a year earlier, while estimated losses rose to $304.6 million, up from $135.7 million in Q2 2025 (Verisk / CargoNet).
For brokers, the message is clear: thieves are going after fewer, higher-value loads, and they often get them by deceiving the people in the booking chain.
What the numbers say
According to CargoNet, Q1 2026 saw 767 supply chain crime events and about $131.6 million in estimated losses. Q2 brought fewer events but far bigger losses, driven by a small number of very large thefts of metals and technology products (Fleet Equipment).
Averages are skewed by these outliers, so the most useful takeaway isn't the average load value. It is that a single successful theft can now exceed a small brokerage's annual profit.
Strategic theft: why brokers are the target
Traditional theft means stealing a parked trailer. Strategic theft means convincing someone to hand the load over. The common methods are:
- Fictitious pickups. A truck arrives with convincing paperwork for a load booked through a stolen or fake identity.
- Identity theft of real carriers. Fraudsters use a legitimate carrier's name and MC number with their own phone and email.
- Double brokering. The load is re-tendered to an unknowing carrier, and the cargo or the payment disappears.
All three exploit the moment a broker books a carrier. See our double brokering and fraud prevention checklist for the verification steps.
Which loads are most at risk
Industry reports consistently name electronics, metals such as copper, food and beverage, and household goods among the most targeted commodities. Holiday seasons, weekends and holiday weekends see more thefts because loads sit longer and fewer people are watching.
What brokers can do
- Tier your vetting by value. Apply stricter carrier rules for high-value commodities: more time in business, verified contacts, no recent changes.
- Confirm driver and truck before pickup and share them with the shipper.
- Require tracking from pickup on high-value loads, and act immediately if it does not start.
- Avoid posting full load details publicly. Commodity, value and exact pickup times help thieves choose targets.
- Check cargo insurance limits and exclusions for the commodity, including unattended-vehicle and fictitious-pickup exclusions.
Price the risk
Stricter rules on high-value freight shrink the pool of carriers you can use, so expect to pay more on those loads. Build that into your quote rather than discovering it after the load is won. Our guides on equipment-type pricing and accessorial charges cover the other cost drivers to include.
Frequently asked questions
Is cargo theft increasing in 2026?
Incidents fell in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025, but estimated losses more than doubled to about $304.6 million, according to CargoNet.
What is strategic cargo theft?
It is theft by deception, such as fictitious pickups, identity theft and double brokering, rather than physically stealing a parked trailer.
Which commodities are most targeted?
Reports frequently name electronics, metals such as copper, food and beverage, and household goods.
